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Project information

Sensibility and multiscenario analysis of the economic forecast results of Endesa

J. Villar F.A. Campos A. Muñoz J. Ruipérez

January 2006 - January 2007

Funding entity Indra-Endesa


SGP is an information system designed and developed by IIT to fit the flexibility and adaptability requirements of the Energetic Planning and Energetic Analysis and Supervision Subdirections of the Spanish electrical utility Endesa for the calculus, analysis and management of economic forecasts for of the whole utility. Based on IIT M2JT multidimensional database model, the system offers algorithms to automatically compute new variable values, using the structural information given in the model hierarchies, and provides a set of client applications to load the information, to compute and analyse the economic forecasts, and to extract and prepare the final reports. This collaboration will focus on the forecast analysis tools of the system. The multi scenario analysis of sensibilities will be fully developed to quantify the risk of a particular final forecast for the whole group, considering the main existing uncertainties. The small signal model of the electricity market at the equilibrium point (calculated by more complex equilibrium solving tools also developed by IIT) will be validated and improved, including the Spain Portugal interconnection modelling. Simplified models of the whole Spanish electricity sector will be designed and developed to facilitate the elaboration of quantitative analysis of the influence of different factors, such as regulatory or technological, in the global results of the different sector agents.


SGP-2006